(02-13-2024 06:54 PM)SeaWolf676 Wrote: I've read what all of you said, and I agree. Unfortunately, I don't think that's quite how it's going to play out.
In the end, the money...obscene as it is...will prevail. It always does. The NCAA may survive, or not. Who really cares? FBS football will most definitely survive. Well, at a very select level. The only questions are (a) How many teams, and (b) What will it be called? Figure the P4 ends up with roughly 60 teams. There's your new "FBS", with a 12...and eventually 16 team...playoff. All of the remaining 70 or so 2nd-tier FBS teams are playing for a bowl game. The upper tier will siphon off most of the big bowls as part of the playoff systems, but there should still be 20+ bowl games for the best of the rest of FBS.
At the FCS level and beyond, nothing changes. The only effect on FCS will be losing top players to the FBS "NFL Farm System" every year. Get used to it. It is what it is. The money is too much to ignore. The FBS will buy the best players out there, wherever they are.
I could go on, and into more detail, but that's the nickel version. Top 40-60 teams rule; 12-16 team playoff; FCS, DII DIII, NAIA, etc, remain largely unchanged; FCS has trouble keeping its' best players. College football becomes (already is) an NFL farm system.
Unless Congress, the NCAA, and/or the conferences themselves act...and quickly...the NIL/transfer portal elephant is about to trample and ultimately wreck the entire FBS / FCS village. Again, it is what it is.
Go Bucs.
I agree with your post, SeaWolf, well said. In terms of the FCS nothing changes. Doc even told me himself that football was fine with the NIL money that they have. So football is probably good to go.
Basketball is not. He thinks to start we need about $170K in our NIL collective to be competitive. Now, do the big donors have that? They most certainly do. We average 3900 a game at Men's basketball games, which still leads the league, even though the men's team is mired in 7th place and likely will be in a play-in game in Asheville. I went to the VMI football game this year, which pitted the 2-5 Bucs vs. the 3-4 Keydets, and the place was full. So fan support has been pretty unwavering, which I think is nothing else than impressive. As of now, the big donors don't like that the collective takes 20-25% off the top for itself. It's a for profit entity. They may not like it, but it's pretty much either they come up with the money, or we will be playing the play-in game in Asheville for the foreseeable future.
Now, who has the money? There are several big donors that could float the $170K or more and not bat an eye, including Trujillo, Niswonger, and several others who I won't name. Hell, Tru Shine car wash & the storage place next to Planet Fitness currently pay our only two players making an significant NIL money, Quimari Peterson & Jalen Seymour. I've heard a couple of people act like we don't have the money here, but that's ridiculous. Of course we do. Hell, we have a medical school, and I know at least a few of those alumni who have made in the millions, likely more. So, I think we can get it. Just for comparison, Woolbright from WCU pulls down $100K in NIL. Samford has the entire starting 5 with NIL money.
ETSU is late to the game, thanks to the wonderful Scott Carter, who tried to stick his head in the sand and ignore this. But, I do think we can catch up.
Now, the question is: Do we want to? Or, maybe we won't have to. As SeaWolf pointed out, the big boys are probably leaving the NCAA anyway. If that happens, the NCAA may reform D1, so to speak, and who knows what happens to the NIL. Or, they actually get a clue and decide to cap NIL or something of that nature.
In the end, the NCAA BOTCHED this entire operation. They give no guidance, and they change the rules as they go. The organization is a joke. Plus, they have zero power, so when they catch a program "cheating" what are they really going to do? Not much. UTK should have a really good case against them. I'm not a UTK alum or fan, but just looking at it objectively I think they do have a good case.
The good ol' days of 4 years ago are long gone in the distant past.... Now I'm a ray of darkness! Well, not completely, because I do think we can compete even with the ridiculousness that's been laid out before us. Thanks NCAA for your absolute incompetence.